Plan gospodarstva RH 2024 I Economic plan of the Republic of Croatia 2024

U tekućoj 2023. poslovnoj godini bili smo i suočeni smo s mnogim događajima koje niti jedna poslovna aproksimacija, planirani budžet ili stručna najava nije predvidjela. Sveukupno bilo je udara i padova, novih troškova, Zakona, administrativnih procedura i dovedeni smo svi zajedno pred gotov čin. Ima poslovnjaka koji na neki način uzimaju i takve događaje u obzir. Naravno ne imenom, već onako generalno, nazivajući takve poremećaje „rizikom poslovanja“, „nepredvidivim događajima“, pa čak i „rasipom“.

Kako su u tijeku planiranja nadolazeće 2024 poslovne godine, budžeti su gotovi ili u konačnoj fazi izrade. Nastavljam na temu budžeta Vlade koji spominjem i u prošlotjednom blogu o rastu vladinog budžeta koji je u posljednje dvije godine narastao za 40 %. Istovremeno Europska banka za obnovu i razvoj isto tako prognozira da će u Hrvatskoj BDP porasti za 2.3 posto u dolazećoj godini. S obzirom na to da naš izvoz dominira prema državama Europe, za nas je značajna informacija da isto to tržište očekuje sporiji rast zbog temeljne inflacije.

Isto tako MMF prognozira porast hrvatskog gospodarstva u 2024. godini za 2,6%, što je niže za 0,3 % od onoga što su prognozirali početkom drugog kvartila ove godine. Istovremeno procjenjuju rast inflacije sa 7,5 % na 8,6 %.

Kako u svakoj situaciji postoji i druga perspektiva, tako je u ove prognoze donosi i jedna banka iz susjedne Slovenije. Naime pitanje koliko je kapitalno „slovenska“, a koliko „mađarska“, no želi ući kroz ova „mala susjedna vrata“. Naime, predsjednik Uprave te banke izjavljuje kako Hrvatska predstavlja „atraktivno tržište i neiskorišteni potencijal“. Pratit ćemo ovaj „slučaj“. Znatiželjna sam saznati koliko će službeni aparat biti podrška pri ulijevanju stranog kapitala. Koja je uostalom politika naše Vlade pri pružanju dobrodošlice stranih tvrtki? Ili nas još uvijek zaobilaze i odlaze istočnije.

Npr. ne znam koliko vam je poznato, no u Srbiju se mic po mic seli dobar dio proizvodnje razno raznih dijelova i komponenti za automobilsku industriju. Zar nije Nijemcima i Austrijancima bliže Hrvatska za takve investicije, redovita putovanja i posjete proizvodnjama?

Zaključila bih da oni koji imaju rade na tome da imaju još više, a oni koji nemaju, ne vide prilike i perspektive, ne poduzimaju akcije, ne rade na učenju novih stručnih znanja, krivi su im drugi i u konačnici imaju sve manje.

Propagiram kulturu obilja i paradigmu pobjednik – pobjednik. Utječem na širenje takvog stava u svojoj poslovnoj zajednici i poslovnim krugovima u kojima sam aktivna.

Pozivam vas da se uključite u ovaj klub.

Mirela

Economic plan of the Republic of Croatia 2024

In the current 2023 business year, we were and are faced with many events that no business approximation, planned budget or professional announcement predicted. All in all, there were ups and downs, new costs, laws, administrative procedures and we were all brought together to the finish line. There are businessmen who somehow take such events into account. Of course not by name, but in a general way, calling such disturbances “business risk”, “unpredictable events”, and even “waste”.

As planning for the upcoming 2024 business year is underway, the budgets have been completed or are in the final stages of preparation. I continue on the topic of the government budget, which I also mentioned in last week’s blog about the growth of the government budget, which has grown by 40% in the last two years. At the same time, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development also forecasts that Croatia’s GDP will grow by 2.3 percent in the coming year. Considering that our exports dominate towards European countries, it is important information for us that the same market expects slower growth due to underlying inflation.

Likewise, the IMF forecasts the growth of the Croatian economy in 2024 by 2.6%, which is 0.3% lower than what they forecast at the beginning of the second quartile of this year. At the same time, they estimate inflation growth from 7.5% to 8.6%.

As there is another perspective in every situation, a bank from neighboring Slovenia also brings it to these forecasts. Namely, the question of how much of the capital is “Slovenian” and how much is “Hungarian”, but wants to enter through this “small next door”. Namely, the president of the management board of that bank declares that Croatia represents an attractive market and untapped potential”. We will follow this “case”. I am curious to find out how much the official apparatus will support the infusion of foreign capital. After all, what is the policy of our government in welcoming foreign companies? Or they still bypass us and go further east.

For example I don’t know how well you know, but a good part of the production of various parts and components for the automotive industry is gradually moving to Serbia. Isn’t Croatia closer to Germans and Austrians for such investments, regular trips and visits to productions?

I would conclude that those who have work to have even more, and those who don’t, don’t see opportunities and perspectives, don’t take actions, don’t work on learning new professional knowledge, others are to blame and ultimately have less and less.

I promote the culture of abundance and the winner-winner paradigm. I influence the spread of such an attitude in my business community and the business circles in which I am active.

I invite you to join this club.

Mirela