Rast vladinog budžeta uz najave recesije I Growth of the government budget with with recession announcements

Neki mediji obavještavaju nas kako će vlada u nadolazećoj izbornoj godini povećati rashode i to za 11.2 %, odnosno uz prethodno godišnje povećanje u sveukupnom iznosu od 40 %.

Mojim poduzetnicima – klijentima koji povećaju rashode za 40 % u dvije godine moraju duplirani prihodi omogućiti ovakve rashode. Matematika je jasna, ne treba nitko biti stručnjak u računovodstvu s dvadesetogodišnjim iskustvom. Sjećate li se vi da našoj Vladi ide tako dobro i da su za toliko povećali prihode, da u dvije godine povisuje rashod za punih 40 %?

Više mjeseci (čitaj godina) pišem o tome kako se uvode promjene i dopune Zakona i Pravilnika koji donose više štete, posla, bačenih radnih sati u vidu zadovoljavanja administrativnog aparata kada postoje logičnija, jednostavnija i korisnija rješenje. Nažalost ne sluša se realni sektor.

S druge strane hajmo pogledati širu sliku. Nismo otok i nismo samodostatno gospodarstvo. Nasmijali ste se, je li? Želim ukazati na to da američko tržište, koje djeluje kao tsunami na ostatak tržišta razvijenog svijeta, ulazi u usporavanje. Naime kako se piše, 70 % kupovina tamošnjih potrošača vrši se preko kreditnih kartica. Prosječna kamata na dug po istim tim karticama se prema službenim podacima Federalnih rezervi popela na rekordnih 22,77 %. Da laički pojasnim kamatni račun, bilo koji dug uz ovako visoku cijenu nije održiv.

Gdje nastupa kriza? Naime isti ovaj izvor u trećem kvartalu bilježi snažan rast udjela potrošača koji više ne mogu pravovremeno vraćati dugove po kreditnim karticama, a kašnjenja dospjelih plaćanja dužih od 90 dana porasla je kod duga po kreditnih karticama do preko 5%. Uz to dug američkih kućanstava porastao je preko 17 bilijuna dolara. Zabilježen je i pad osobne štednje za 1,6 %, što potvrđuje da je su kućanstva iz ove „obećane zemlje“ trošila iznad svojih mogućnosti.

Samo ovi javno dostupni podaci ukazuju na najavu recesije, taj tsunami val vidimo iz dalek, približava se i imamo taman toliko vremena da se pripremimo za još jedan recesijski val.

I vratimo se na početak ovog bloga i kako vaša Vlada u dvije godine povećava budžet za 40 %. Uviđate li neku sličnost s američkim građanima? Za mene je to trošak bez pokrića.

Mirela

 

Growth of the government budget with a view to recession

 

Some media inform us that the government will increase expenditures in the coming election year by 11.2%, i.e. in addition to the previous annual increase in the total amount of 40%.

For my entrepreneurs – clients who increase expenses by 40% in two years, doubled incomes must enable such expenses. The math is clear, no one needs to be an expert in accounting with twenty years of experience. Do you remember that our government is doing so well and that they have increased their income by so much that in two years they have increased their expenditure by a full 40%?

For several months (read years) I have been writing about how changes and amendments to the Law and Regulations are being introduced that bring more damage, work, wasted working hours in the form of satisfying the administrative apparatus when there are more logical, simpler and more useful solutions. Unfortunately, the real sector is not being listened to.

On the other hand, let’s look at the bigger picture. We are not an island and we are not a self-sufficient economy. You laughed, didn’t you? I want to point out that the US market, which acts like a tsunami on the rest of the developed world market, is entering a slowdown. Namely, as it is written, 70% of purchases by consumers there are made via credit cards. According to the official data of the Federal Reserve, the average interest on debt on these same cards rose to a record 22.77%. To explain the interest calculation in layman’s terms, any debt at such a high price is not sustainable.

Where does the crisis occur? Namely, this same source in the third quarter records a strong growth in the share of consumers who can no longer repay credit card debts on time, and overdue payment delays of more than 90 days have increased in the case of credit card debt to over 5%. In addition, the debt of American households increased by over 17 trillion dollars. A 1.6% drop in personal savings was also recorded, which confirms that households from this “promised land” spent beyond their means.

Only these publicly available data indicate the announcement of a recession, we can see that tsunami wave from afar, it is approaching and we have just enough time to prepare for another recession wave.

And let’s go back to the beginning of this blog and how your government increased the budget by 40% in two years. Do you see any similarities with American citizens? For me, it’s an out-of-pocket expense.

Mirela

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